For those following Hurricane Idalia, check out our forecasts on the WeatherISH Group page for more frequent updates!
WeatherISH Tropical Discussion
August 29, 2023; afternoon
Hurricane Idalia is currently parallel with the southeastern portion of Florida, measuring sustained maximum windspeeds of 90 MPH, a higher Category 1 hurricane. Today, for Idalia, is the intensification day.
Recent satellite imagery and radar (see below) show that Idalia's eye is growing more defined as we progress through the day. Idalia's track remains the same as the mid-atmospheric trough and subtropical ridging over the Greater Antilles (of which Idalia is wedged between), control the steering for this system.
Intensity models for this storm have adjusted once again, ranging from a Category 1 storm at landfall to a barely Category 3 at landfall. While the GFS and several other models place Idalia at a Category 2 or 3 upon landfall east of Panama City (western Big Bend), the EURO and the CMC are convinced Idalia will not reach Major Hurricane status.
So, what should you expect over the next three days?
While most of Florida runs the risk of flash flooding over the next three days, areas between Jacksonville and just east of Tallahassee are at the most risk (the SPC has classified that area as a moderate risk for flash flooding). Areas further east and south of that area make up a slight and marginal risk of flash flooding. Now, that does not mean you're not getting rain; most of Florida will be sick of rain by the end of the week. While areas surrounding Tallahassee should expect the bulk of heavy rainfall (peaking around 10 inches), Big Bend and northeast of Tampa should receive between 4-6 inches.
Storm Surge is always a concern with any storm, but Big Bend should be especially mindful, with the highest surge expected between 10-15 feet. Please check out the link below to check the surge reach in your area!
Damaging winds should be relatively compact around Idalia and unlikely to
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Are you following Potential Tropical Cyclone One/ Future Tropical Storm Alex/ Former Hurricane Agatha in the Gulf of Mexico? If not, check out our private local forecasting group for all our tropical updates, cool nerdy weather facts, and answers to your weather-related questions! We hope to see you there!
Image credit: NOAA GOES, 2022
While Major Hurricane Sam is going to stay in the Atlantic, check out Sam at 130 MPH!
Image credit: NOAA GOES
Hello Everyone!
With Tropical Storm Fred on the Florida horizon, stay weather aware with WeatherISH! Join our free local Facebook forecasting page: WeatherISH LLC. Group for Tropical Storm Fred updates!
Current Storm Stats
Name: Tropical Storm Fred
Windspeed: 40mph
Current Location: ESE of the Dominican Republic
*Cool Fact* The last "Fred" was in 2015. The 2015 Fred was also an August storm that eventually grew to a Category 1 hurricane..... that quickly diminished in the mid-Atlantic.
#hurricaneseason2021 #wxish #wxishheartsthesoutheast
image credit: GOES image viewer
Elsa has strengthened to a Category 1 hurricane this morning (July 2, 2021). Currently, most model intensity guidance has Elsa maintaining this status over the next two days until finally declining around day three into a Tropical Storm; however, the model minority is divided into two camps 1.) Elsa becomes a Category 2 within two days or 2.) Elsa rapidly declines to a Tropical Storm sooner in the timeline.
Read more on Hurricane Elsa this afternoon, with the WeatherISH Tropical Discussion in the WeatherISH, LLC. Group local forecasting page!
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