27/05/2025
Europe Must Prepare for the Long Haul: German Chancellor's Blunt Assessment of Uk Ukraine Real Warriors
The diplomatic honeymoon is over. After three years of conflict, Germany's Friedrich Merz is telling Europeans what many didn't want to hear: this war isn't ending anytime soon.
Speaking from Turku, the German Chancellor delivered a sobering reality check that should make every European sit up and take notice. Despite intensive diplomatic efforts spanning from Brussels to the Vatican, Russia has shown zero interest in meaningful peace negotiations. When Putin won't even accept mediation from the Pope, you know we're dealing with a regime that only understands one language: force.
The Military Reality on the Ground
The numbers tell the story Western leaders are finally acknowledging. Ukraine has been burning through approximately 240,000 artillery shells per month during peak fighting periods – that's more than the entire EU was producing annually before the war began. Meanwhile, Russia has ramped up its defense production to Cold War levels, manufacturing over 3 million artillery rounds yearly while converting its entire economy into a war machine.
Here's what makes this conflict different from anything Europe has seen since WWII: modern warfare's devastating efficiency. Ukrainian forces are operating advanced Western systems like HIMARS rocket launchers (range: 80km), German Leopard 2 tanks, and French CAESAR howitzers alongside Soviet-era equipment. But Russia isn't just throwing bodies at the problem anymore – they're deploying Lancet kamikaze drones that cost $35,000 each but can destroy a $4 million Western tank.
The Economic War Machine
Merz hit the nail on the head when he said wars end through military or economic exhaustion, not diplomatic breakthroughs. Russia's war economy is now consuming 40% of its federal budget – unsustainable in the long term, but Putin is betting he can outlast Western resolve. The Kremlin has shifted 3.3 million workers into defense production, essentially putting the country on a wartime economic footing not seen since Stalin's era.
But here's the kicker: Europe is finally fighting back economically. The EU's 14th sanctions package has targeted over 2,000 Russian entities, while innovative measures like seizing Russian central bank assets ($300 billion frozen) are being used to fund Ukrainian reconstruction. It's economic warfare at its most sophisticated.
Why This Matters for Every European
Merz's proposed contact group of Germany, France, Britain, and Poland isn't just diplomatic theater – it's recognition that NATO's eastern flank is now the front line of European security. Poland has increased defense spending to 4% of GDP, the highest in NATO, while the Baltic states are literally building walls along their Russian borders.
The military aid flowing to Ukraine reads like a shopping list of NATO's best equipment: M777 howitzers (40km range), Javelin anti-tank missiles (4.75km range, 94% hit rate), and NLAW anti-tank weapons that Ukrainian forces have used to destroy over 500 Russian armored vehicles. But sustainability is the question – Western defense contractors are struggling to replace equipment at wartime consumption rates.
The Uncomfortable Truth
What Merz didn't say but everyone knows: Europe was caught unprepared. Germany had only 2 days of ammunition reserves when the war started. The UK's army is smaller than at any point since the Napoleonic Wars. France's military is stretched across three continents. Only now are European nations seriously rebuilding their defense capabilities.
Russia, meanwhile, has demonstrated it can sustain over 1,000 casualties per day while continuing offensive operations. Their winter offensive consumed an estimated 150,000 troops but achieved minimal territorial gains – yet they keep coming. This isn't the quick victory Putin promised, but it's not the rapid Russian collapse many Western analysts predicted either.
The Bottom Line
Merz's message is crystal clear: buckle up, Europe. This isn't a sprint; it's a marathon. Putin is betting that European voters will grow tired of supporting Ukraine, that energy prices will break public resolve, and that political changes in key capitals will shift the dynamic in Moscow's favor.
The question isn't whether Ukraine can win militarily – they've proven that by recapturing 74,000 square kilometers of territory and sinking most of Russia's Black Sea Fleet without having a navy. The question is whether European societies have the stomach for what could be years more of elevated defense spending, refugee support, and economic disruption.
As Merz noted, this isn't just about Ukraine's territorial integrity – it's about whether Europe will shape its own destiny or have it dictated by an authoritarian regime that sees compromise as weakness and negotiation as surrender.
The stakes couldn't be higher. The timeline just got a lot longer.
What do you think? Is Europe ready for a protracted conflict, or will war fatigue change the political landscape? Share your thoughts below. 👇
