12/14/2022
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER RISK ON WEDNESDAY INTO WED. NIGHT; STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE... The entirety of our local area in southwest Alabama and northwest Florida is involved in an uncommon Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk valid on Wednesday into Wednesday night. The enhanced risk is driven by the growing potential for tornadoes, a few of which may be strong or long-lasting. Strong tornadoes are rated as EF2+ on the Enhanced Fujita tornado intensity scale with winds in excess of 113 mph. While the vast majority of communities across our region will not have tornadoes that strong, some communities may have tornadoes around that ARE that strong. Damaging straight line winds of 70-80 mph may also be possible as the main line of thunderstorms pushes through late Wednesday into early Thursday. One fairly significant change that has happened today is that we are introducing a lower-end severe weather risk BEFORE the main event arrives Wednesday evening. There will be a 12 hour window from 2AM Wednesday to 2PM Wednesday when rotating thunderstorms will be possible across the region. More details are below.
UPDATED: SEVERE WEATHER TIMING - WED. INTO WED. NIGHT... We are now looking at two distinct rounds of potential severe storms. The first round is questionable and may not come to fruition. The second round is far more likely to happen. Round 1 of severe storms will be possible from 2AM overnight to 2PM Wednesday. That means we all will need a way to hear warnings TONIGHT into early Wednesday, even though the overall risk is a bit lower compared to the risk later in the day. 2PM Wednesday to 2AM Thursday is now the 12 hour window when strong to severe thunderstorms are most likely to happen across southwest Alabama and northwest Florida and when the overall risk of strong tornadoes will be maximized. Have a way to hear warnings over the next 36 hours!
MORNING ROUND OF STORMS - LESS CONFIDENT... Isolated, discrete thunderstorms capable of producing a few tornadoes will become possible from 2AM Wednesday to 2PM Wednesday. There is a real chance this first wave of storms does not materialize, but we note some of the higher-res model guidance is showing some potential for a few stronger storms to develop before the MAIN time window for severe storms which will happen on Wednesday evening (details in next paragraph).
EVENING ROUND OF STORMS - MORE CONFIDENT... Discrete supercell thunderstorms will likely develop across our area on Wednesday in the late afternoon and early evening hours. These storms could produce a few tornadoes, some of which may be strong or long-tracked. A line of intense thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes and damaging wind gusts will approach our area from the west around 6PM. This line of storms will move east across our area from 6PM to 2AM. Storms should be east of our area and into the Florida Panhandle region and southeast Alabama by 3AM Thursday.
LEVEL 3 (OUT OF 5) SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR ALL LOCAL COMMUNITIES... The Storm Prediction Center expanded the Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk to include ALL parts of our local area in southwest Alabama and northwest Florida. If your community is listed below or you're near one of these communities, you are included or very near the Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk zone: Mobile, Prichard, Citronelle, Mt. Vernon, Creola, Satsuma, Saraland, Calvert, Wilmer, West Mobile, Bayou La Batre, Coden, Alabama Port, Dauphin Island, Theodore, Crichton, Tanner Williams, Tillmans Corner, Chunchula, Grand Bay, Daphne, Fairhope, Spanish Fort, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Fort Morgan, Magnolia Springs, Foley, Elberta, Elsanor, Robertsdale, Summerdale, Silverhill, Montrose, Loxley, Stapleton, Bay Minette, Stockton, Rabun, Perdido, Tensaw, Point Clear, Chatom, Leroy, McIntosh, Millry, Deer Park, Vinegar Bend, Fruitdale, Yellow Pine, Copeland, Yarbo, Jordan, Bigbee, St. Stephens, Tibbie, Sims Chapel, Sunflower, Malcolm, Thomasville, Grove Hill, Jackson, Coffeeville, Fulton, Carlton, Gainestown, Gosport, Whatley, Scyrene, Springfield, Chilton, Tallahatta Springs, Bashi, Woods Bluff, Campbell, Zimco, Toddtown, Salitpa, Suggsville, Alma, Dickinson, West Bend, Winn, Walker Springs, Monroeville, Excel, Uriah, Frisco City, Megargal, Mineola, Chrysler, Goodway, Peterman, Tunnel Springs, Beatrice, Riley Crossing, Perdue Hill, Mexia, Scratch Ankle, Hybart, Franklin, Eliska, Evergreen, Castleberry, Owassa, Repton, Lenox, Range, Burnt Corn, Lyeffion, Centerville, Johnsonville, Brooklyn, Paul, Melrose, Old Sparta, Jay Villa, Belleville, Brewton, East Brewton, Atmore, Flomaton, Riverview, Poarch, Huxford, Wallace, Barnett Crossroads, Pineview, Wawbeek, Canoe, Nokomis, Appleton, Kirkland, Dixie, Roberts, Damascus, Pollard/McCall, Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Rose Hill, Onycha, Red Oak, Green Bay, Straughn, Red Level, Gantt, Clearview, Carolina, Pleasant Home, Wing, Sanford, Libertyville, Eoda, Horn Hill, Lockhart, River Falls, Loango, Fairfield, Greenville, Georgiana, Chapman, Bolling, Grace, Garland, Oaky Streak, Daisy, Halso Mill, Starlington, Forest Home, Pensacola, Pensacola Beach, Perdido Key, Warrington, Myrtle Grove, Molino, Walnut Hill, Bratt, Century, Ensley, Gonzalez, Cantonment, Quintette, McDavid, Navarre, Jay, Milton, Pace, Gulf Breeze, Harold, Whiting Field, Chumuckla, New York, Brownsdale, Berrydale, Munson, Fidelis, McClellan, Mulat, Bagdad, Pine Bluff, Avalon Beach, Garcon Point, Whitfield, Allentown, Destin, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Mary Esther, Wright, VPS, Eglin AFB, Crestview, Deerland, Campton, Auburn (FL), Baker, Holt, Milligan, and Laurel Hill.
The following 8 points outline extensively the preparedness steps we can take this evening ahead of this severe weather event. If you know of someone who may be new to our area, send this info to them or tag them as this may be a totally new concept for them. So many folks come to our region and don't know some of the severe weather info that comes second nature to those of us who have been around here for awhile.
1) WARNINGS… Most importantly, PLEASE HAVE A WAY TO RECEIVE WEATHER WARNINGS ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT! If you don't have a way to get the warnings, the rest of these points are moot. You have to KNOW when something is happening in your area! No matter where you are in Alabama, northwest Florida, or Mississippi, you're included in a severe weather risk zone on Wednesday into Wednesday night. NOAA Weather Radios are great but they do generally need batteries (AA, AAA, etc.), Also, my company, RedZone Weather, has an app (free download at redzoneweather.com/app) that you can watch our live streaming video and audio coverage if tornado warnings happen in southwest Alabama or northwest Florida (coverage commitments available here: redzoneweather.com/coverage)
2) WHY HELMETS WORK SO WELL... Emerging research continues to show that wearing a helmet during a tornado that strikes your location greatly increases your chance of survival. Why? Because majority of fatal injuries that happen due to tornadoes happen because of blunt force trauma to the head/skull region. Thus, if we can mitigate this hazard in any way, we should. That's where helmets and cooking pots come into the equation. Anything is better than nothing in this case. This means if you can grab a football, baseball, softball, bicycle, motorcycle, ballistics, or welding helmet and put it on, it will highly likely help you survive a tornado impact. Note this helmet deal isn’t just for children. It applies to everyone, no matter if you’re 8, 28, or 88 years old. Everyone needs a severe weather helmet. I cannot recommend them to you enough!
3) PHONES/TABLETS... Charge your cell phones and iPads and other electronic devices NOW. Don't wait. Power may be out in some areas of Alabama, northwest Florida, and Mississippi on Wednesday or early Thursday. If you've been on the fence about purchasing one of the fantastic small battery backups that can power your phone or iPad, I highly recommend getting one the next time you go to the store or visit Amazon. In my experience, I'm a fan of the Anker batteries. You'll need a charging cable to go with it.
4) WHISTLES/AIRHORNS/IDs... You need something like a whistle, air horn, or something else that can emit a loud noise to let first responders know if you've been affected by a tornado and you're trapped under debris. It's important to also have your ID on your person during tornado warnings. If you need medical help and you're unconscious, first responders need to know who you are.
5) CLOSED-TOED SHOES... It would pain me so much to hear that someone had been affected by a tornado, survived it, then walked out of a destroyed home, stepped on a live electrical wire and got electrocuted. Wear closed-toed shoes tomorrow into Thursday morning! This is an easy thing we can all do with little effort.
6) PEOPLE AND PETS... Don't forget about the pets when/if you have to take shelter Wednesday into early Thursday. Dogs and cats need to be sheltered too! Also, don't forget to LET PEOPLE KNOW that we have a substantial severe weather risk across portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and northwest Florida on Wednesday into early Thursday. You'd be amazed at how many people I see regularly that don't have a clue what's happening in the news and weather world. That's fine -- until it's not and they become a tornado casualty. Share this point, share someone else's weather post, I really don't care what you share as long as you TELL PEOPLE ABOUT THIS RISK.
7) HAVE A PLAN… Know NOW where you'll be on Wednesday. We recommend getting on the lowest floor of a well-constructed, site-built structure (like a sturdy house or business), away from windows and doors, putting as many walls as you possibly can between you and the outside world. You CANNOT be in a vehicle or a mobile home during a tornado warnings! These places become death traps very quickly in tornado situations... Don't think, "Oh, I'll try to outrun it." NO. This could prove to be a fatal mistake. Underground tornado shelters are the best place to be, but many folks don’t have one of those, and that is okay. You don’t have to be underground to survive a tornado.
8) COVERAGE... I provide live streaming video coverage via our RedZone Weather app and on redzoneweather.com during tornado warnings for 12 counties in southwest Alabama and in northwest Florida. Some of you reading this post are NOT in our local area. While I appreciate you reading this, I would suggest finding out NOW who covers tornado warnings in your specific area. redzoneweather.com/coverage outlines our coverage policy extensively. Find a weather source you trust and watch the information tomorrow into early Thursday!
APP ALERTS… Now is the time, BEFORE we get to this severe weather potential, to set up the RedZone Weather app on your smartphone! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the iOS or Android version of the app. Once you have the app downloaded to your device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner of the app), then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
I will have more updates posted about this developing severe weather situation over the next several hours in the RedZone Weather app. My next regularly scheduled forecast video will be posted by 7:15AM tomorrow morning. Be sure to join me then for the latest information. Have a nice Tuesday evening!
