10/23/2024
Witness for the Prosecution
by Bill Kristol
John Kelly has stepped up.
The retired Marine general, and Donald Trump’s longest-serving chief of staff, has amplified his previous warnings about Trump’s unfitness for the presidency. In new, recorded interviews with the New York Times, as well as in a discussion with the Atlantic, Kelly provides some of his most wide-ranging comments yet about Trump’s dictatorial aspirations (“He certainly prefers the dictator approach to government”) and the ex-president’s utter contempt not just for military service but for the Constitution and the rule of law.
As a former senior military officer, Kelly explained he was not endorsing any candidate. But he also said “it’s a very dangerous thing to have the wrong person elected to high office.” He has certainly made it clear that Trump is that wrong person.
Do read—and listen to—the whole thing.
Will Kelly’s new comments make a difference? Given that half the American public has been stubbornly resistant for years to facing up to Trump’s manifest unfitness for office, maybe not.
On the other hand, Kelly might very well make a difference. Here’s why.
The Democratic polling and messaging firm Blueprint recently tested the effectiveness of several closing messages for the Harris campaign. (This was before Kelly’s new remarks.) Here’s one message the group put before voters:
Donald Trump doesn’t have the character it takes to be president. He’s erratic and can’t control himself. He denied the results of an election just because he lost and is a threat to the fundamental American principle of democracy. He instigated a riot at the Capitol that left three police officers dead.
This general (and true) statement barely moved the needle on voters’ preferences. It presumably simply sounds like a reiteration of things voters have heard before.
What did move the needle was this message:
Nearly half of Donald Trump’s Cabinet have refused to endorse him. When Trump learned during the Capitol riot that his supporters were threatening to kill his own vice president, he said ‘so what?’ and refused to do anything to assure the vice president was safe. Republican governors, senators, and House members have all said the same thing: We can’t give Trump another four years as president.”
As soon as the message turned from an abstract argument against Trump into an unambiguous case that Trump’s own former allies were making against him, it became the single most persuasive line tested by Blueprint. It was stronger even than abortion rights and Social Security. In other words, hearing about Trump’s unfitness from people who worked with him, and from Republicans one would expect to defend him, seems to make a difference.
I think the takeaway here is pretty obvious: Voters have become inured to many shocking things about Trump, but maybe the one thing that can shake them out of that torpor is people who knew or worked with Trump stepping up to make the case from their own experience.
The messenger matters as much as the message.
And Kelly is a unique messenger. He chose to join the Trump administration, first as homeland security secretary, then as chief of staff. He worked as closely with Trump as president as anyone. As he says, he agreed with some of Trump’s policies. He is a highly respected retired military officer.
I doubt there’s a more convincing messenger to those still uncertain of their vote. I don’t believe there’s a better closing witness against Trump. I hope the Harris campaign puts real effort and money behind amplifying Kelly’s statement as much as possible, including in paid media.
Kamala Harris was a prosecutor. She knows that a prosecutor can assemble evidence and make assertions. But she also knows that a witness can testify to things he’s seen with his own eyes. And she knows that some witnesses have more credibility and impact than others. She knows that you want your closing witness to be your strongest.
As this campaign draws to a close, Kelly is now the strongest witness for the prosecution.
We’re the jury in this thing, which means we get a say in what kind of country we’ll have.