09/26/2024
Hurricane Helene update as of noon on 9.26.24 — For Okaloosa County, the Tropical Storm Warning still stops at the Okaloosa/Walton County line for land, but exist over coast waters through Escambia County. Storm surge well to our East. Minor coastal flooding of 2-2.5 feet on the rebound Friday morning is possible, similar to a king tide. Rainfall up to 2” possible with a slight potential for flash flooding if rainfall rates were briefly high in banding features. Tropical Storm force wind probabilities have dropped a bit farther and Strong Tropical Storm force winds (59-73MPH) or Hurricane force winds (73MPH+) are off the table in this model run. We are under a Wind Advisory from noon through midnight which includes winds of 15-25 MPH winds with gusts to 40MPH. Timing on that looks to evolve like this: gusts to 30MPH possible by around 2-3PM today through midnight, gusts to 40MPH more likely 7-8PM though midnight. For Friday morning, gusts of 25MPH still likely along the coast at 5AM, but gusts to 40 have a 0% probability.
Helene is now a 105MPH max sustained winds Cat 2 hurricane moving NNE at 14MPH. The system now has a closed eyewall and is strengthening. A shift to the East on this model run, which we saw coming based upon the path vs position in the intermediate advisory. Sometimes that’s visible, sometimes it isn’t. Helene is forecast to reach 120MPH Cat 3 strength later today and remain there (or higher) through landfall in the Big Bend this evening. Obviously, effects will be felt long before the center moves on-shore for areas which will be impacted. Helene is expected to be moving near 27MPH by 7PM this evening, which is incredible forward speed for a large, landfalling system. Portions of the Big Bend area are forecast to receive catastrophic storm surge (15-20 feet), tremendous flash flooding potential and moderate riverine flooding as additional rain from the system drains South from the impacts to the North.